Introduction — The pixel and the bayonet: same screen, same level

On the same smartphone screen, Tyson biting an ear, the Strait of Hormuz, a Zara drop notification, and a war death toll scroll past as equal pixels. The same format, the same weight, the same swipe. This is not a technological accident. It is an architecture.

This article's thesis is simple and uncomfortable: global disorder is not a malfunction of the international system. It is one of its products — organized, tolerated, and in some respects demanded. Three interlocking gears sustain it: producing states that self-immunize from common law; leaders who export instability to protect domestic peace; and populations who validate the system through their silence — and through their appetite.

The question is not who is guilty. The question is how the machine works, and whether it has ever — even once in human history — been stopped.



Title I — Armaments: the world's most controlled market... on paper

I.1 — The formal apparatus

Arms are, on paper, among the most strictly regulated goods in international commerce. The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), adopted by the UN General Assembly in 2013 and in force since 2014, establishes binding obligations on signatory states regarding the export, import, and transfer of conventional weapons. It requires risk assessment before any transfer, prohibits sales to embargoed states, and mandates record-keeping.

At the national level, each major producer — France, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, China — has its own export licensing system. In France, arms exports are subject to prior authorization by the Prime Minister, after an interministerial commission review (CIEEMG). The end-user certificate (EUC) formally commits the purchasing state to being the sole user and not re-transferring without prior consent.

The system, on its face, is rigorous. The gap between the formal architecture and observable reality is structural, not accidental.

I.2 — The structural flaw: control stops at the border

The end-user certificate is a declaration. Once arms are delivered, no mechanism compels the exporting state to verify compliance on the ground. There is no international inspection body with enforcement powers over arms transfers between states. The ATT's Implementation Support Unit monitors reporting — it does not audit warehouses.

This creates a mechanical consequence: the moment arms cross a border under legal cover, the formal chain of accountability breaks. What happens next — diversion, resale, battlefield capture, deliberate channeling to non-state actors — is documented extensively but prosecuted almost never.

I.3 — The four channels of diversion

First channel: internal corruption. In fragile states and conflict zones, underpaid officers sell directly from their own armories. The Iraqi army, equipped at massive cost by the United States, saw thousands of weapons — including M16 rifles, Humvees, and artillery — fall into the hands of the Islamic State in 2014 when units abandoned their positions. These were not stolen: they were left.

Second channel: indirect state deliveries. A state that cannot officially supply a non-state actor does so through an intermediary — an allied government, an intelligence service, a private military company. The CIA's Operation Cyclone (arming Afghan mujahideen in the 1980s), documented in declassified archives, is the canonical example. The practice has not ceased; the legal architecture around it has become more sophisticated.

Third channel: the black market. Small Arms Survey estimates that illicit trade represents 20 to 30% of the global small arms market. The collapse of the Libyan state after 2011 released enormous stockpiles — including weapons originally purchased legally by Gaddafi — into a regional circulation network that supplied conflicts from Mali to Syria. These arms did not appear from nowhere. They were manufactured, sold legally, and then released into uncontrolled circulation.

Fourth channel: historical proliferation. The AK-47 was produced in over 30 countries under Soviet license. An estimated 75 to 100 million units exist worldwide. At less than 300 euros on many black markets, it is the weapon of every conflict. Its ubiquity is not a failure of control — it is the long-term consequence of deliberate industrial scaling by states that knew exactly what they were doing.

I.4 — The producer liability principle applied to arms

If a FAMAS rifle is found in the hands of a terrorist group, the standard legal response is to trace the chain of transfer and hold the last confirmed state-to-state sale as the formal endpoint of responsibility. The French state, as producer, is immunized by the doctrine of raison d'État — national interest overrides common law liability.

This immunity is not a natural rule. It is a derogation from the common law principle of producer liability — the same principle that makes a car manufacturer liable for a defective brake system, regardless of how many intermediaries handled the vehicle between factory and accident. The arm manufacturer knows, statistically and structurally, that a percentage of its production will end in unintended hands. It produces anyway, and the state covers the liability gap.

Applying the producer liability framework to arms would not require proving intent. It would require proving foreseeable harm — a standard well established in consumer and tort law. The political will to apply it does not exist, because the five states that would be most exposed are precisely the five permanent members of the Security Council.



Title II — The conspiracy without a secret plot

L'ouverture s'arrête ici.

Vous venez de lire la partie qui pose le problème. C'est délibérément là que s'arrête l'accès libre. Le corpus est un travail de recherche personnel poursuivi depuis 1998, et la question m'a toujours intéressé davantage que la conclusion.

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